Predicting distribution changes of a mire ecosystem under future climates

Abstract

Aim Mire ecosystems are threatened by global climate change but have important roles in biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, landscape‐scale hydrological function and in providing ecosystem services. We aimed to: (1) estimate change in areas environmentally suitable for mires under future climates; (2) evaluate the sensitivities of projected change to uncertainties in future climate and model structure; (3) evaluate the effect of global mitigation actions on distribution change; (4) identify potential climate refuges for future adaptation actions. Methods We developed and evaluated correlative bioclimatic models for an Australian mire ecosystem by: (1) selecting environmental predicto..